From India, I flew through Dubai to get to Johannesburg. As disappointing Abu Dhabi was, Dubai was surprising. It is every bit what you would expect from a tiny, energy-rich kingdom in the Middle East. On the surface of it, everything is brand new, the naked Mideast sun glinting off all of the polished glass, steel, and marble twisted into shapes you don't normally associate with buildings. The airport was massive, spotless, and high-tech, packed with giant flat screen displays and lots of open space. The thought occurred to me that "this is what the US should look like".
I thought about how the US and Dubai were in very different yet very similar positions 30 years ago. The US was being terrorized with stagflation, a small band of psychotic Iranians were holding us hostage, the national mood was dour, oil prices were wreaking havoc on the economy, and there weren't any great prospects for an economic rebound. Dubai was a small city-state trying to move past border skirmishes with Abu Dhabi, trying to absorb refugees from the Lebanon civil war, and had a modest economy built around trade.
As oil prices spiked in the late 70s and 80s, Dubai's rulers used their magical wells of decayed-dinosaur money to build a real economy - today energy is only 6% of their GDP, with the primary pillars being tourism (including the world's only seven star hotel and the manmade island communities you always see on the Discovery channel), real estate, construction, trade, financial services, and a fledgling high-tech community.
Our decaying dinosaurs in Congress found their own magical well of money as well - the deregulated financial system. Only instead of plowing our Monopoly money into investments that actually did something (oh I don't know, like building the next generation of energy technology), we instead used it to buy and sell houses to each other and let the Chinese pull the biggest financial scam in history (selling us worthless crap denoted in a fiat currency valued precisely to empty our pockets and fund the development of sophisticated capabilities to steal our military and technology secrets to be used against us in Cold War II) while a small group fraternity brothers relived the life of Caligula.
So today, we're staring into the abyss of stagflation once again (I dare suggest), we're still being held hostage by an isolated band of Iranian whackjobs, and the people with their eyes open are once again looking around, wondering where exactly from where all the promised economic growth is going to come. Our infrastructure is crumbling, and Dubai's is popping. Etc...
Ok, I'm exaggerating to make the point... Dubai is actually not in that great of shape economically right now, but still, I think it's the country's infrastructure serves as a stark illustration of where the US should be relative to the deep hole we're in right now. And, the US will no doubt emerge from the hole stronger than ever while Dubai's economy will remain eclipsed the revenues of mid-pack Fortune 500 companies. Anyway, I'm detouring again... back to my observations of the place.
I had a seven hour layover, so I decided to head out of the airport and explore a bit. US citizens don't need to apply for a visa ahead of time, so it was kind of weird to just breeze through immigration in the heart of the Middle East (I suppose the sorts of American invasions they worry about involve B-2 bombers and MRAPs).
Earlier I mentioned that on the surface, Dubai appears to be a vision from the future. However, when you take the monorail (which is really cool and totally silent... in stark contrast to the racket of Chicago's El) from the airport to downtown, you (quickly) pass through the parts of town where ordinary Emiratis live.
The horizon is dotted with the satellite dishes Mideasterners depend upon to get uncensored television broadcasts (though the UAE is very liberal when compared to some of its neighbors like Saudi Arabia), sitting on top of dirty stucco buildings, half of which look like they're going to fall down under the weight of all the clothes drying on lines, punctuated with mosque minarets every 100 feet or so (each block easily had its own mosque... speaking of minarets, I was in a book store in the airport when it was time for Dhuhr, the midday prayer in Sunni Islam... just as the as the prayer was starting to be sung over the PA system, the longest, rattiest, dirtiest American white trash mullet walked right past me, looking at books... seriously, like he could really read? I frantically started looking through my bag for my camera to take a video, but alas, I missed the opportunity... I've found my Moby Dick though... before I die, I must catch a mullet like that on video with an authentic Dhuhr in the background providing the soundtrack).
Unfortunately, on my way to the monorail, I was befriened by a bespeckled, creepy Drew Carey look-alike from Germany named Neihls who was on his way to holiday in Thailand (for god knows what) and who decided I looked like I knew where I was going. Once we bought our tickets and a train was approaching, I ducked into the bathroom and took my time, washing my face and wondering who actually used the little garden hoses they have as toilet paper substitutes. I figured Niehls was certain to board the train without me, but nope, when I came out he was standing there, looking like Ralphie from A Christmas Story, lost in Dubai.
Anyway, Niehls and I headed to the Burj Dubai because I had to see what a building twice the height of the Sears Tower (that's right, Willis, Sears) looked like. In short, it was breathtaking. As you can see from the photos, it's impossible to get far enough away to get the whole thing in a camera frame without ending up with a lot of buildings and other stuff obstructing the view. They need like a one mile radius around the thing so tourists will be able to get photos with it.
Unfortunately, construction is way behind schedule and it's still not open, so I wasn't able to get to the top and snap some pictures of the surrounding continent.
Due to a combination of wanting to shake Niehls, not walk around in the 9am blazing sun after already being in a serious state of shower-neediness with another nine hour flight ahead of me, and get my Christmas shopping done in one of Dubai's ultra-modern malls, I told my Bavarian friend I was going to hang out in Starbucks to get some work done until the mall opened at 10am, and that was about the extent of my Dubai experience. I'm dying to go back though and take the bus tours they have that run through the old, cultural parts of town and the allegedly incredible beaches (though not THAT incredible), as well as all the shiny new architecture.
Below are some of my photos from the daytrip (I totally didn't even think to get a picture of Niehls until it was too late... we'll forever have Dubai).
For some reason I thought the Arabic version of the CPK sign was really cool... a weird juxtaposition of an icon of Americanism in a culture that hails from the other end of the spectrum.
In the same location, trying to get the top of the building in the shot.
You can see how massive the base is.
I apologize for another shaky handheld video, but it was the only way to really capture the size of the building.
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1 comments:
Hey CK, I remember stagflation. I believe it will be much worse this time. The credit contraction and asset deflation has just begun. When real estate prices fall another 25% and the Dow sinks below 5000, people will demand that the government do more, and government will, by turning deflation into a raging hyperinflation.
People always blame Congress but Congress has 96% re-election rate. In a democracy, the people get the government they deserve. As the saying goes, "We have found the enemy, and it is ourselves."
As for Dubai, I think they have been profligate, spending mostly on non-producing assets like trophy buildings and islands dredged from sand in the Persian Gulf. Historically, the completion of a new milestone building often marks the top in the economic cycle. The Empire State building was completed in 1929.
What Dubai should have done is use their money to invest in producing assets - i.e. profitable businesses around the globe. When you live in the dessert, you don't want all your eggs sitting in a tall pile in the dessert.
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